The first poll on Scottish independence in 2021 has found 57% support for independence from Scottish voters.
The poll by SavantaComRes for the unionist leaning Scotsman newspaper is also the 18th poll in a row to show majority backing for independence. The 57% Yes finding is 1.5% higher than the average for polls conducted by SavantaComRes in the fourth quarter of 2020 and sits only 1% below the record highs of 58% found first by IPSO MORI in Early October and again by SavantaComRes in early December 2020.
SavantaComRes interviewed 1,016 adults in Scotland aged 16 or over online between January 8 and 13 for this poll.
With the ‘undecideds’ excluded the poll shows 57% would vote Yes and 43% would vote No. When the ‘undecideds’ are included Yes support is still at 51%, 38% would vote No and 10% say they have not yet made a decision.
That is close to a record low for the No vote. The relatively high 10% undecided figure shows that there are many votes still to campaign for. However, even if all of those ‘undecideds’ voted No, Yes would still win.
Looking ahead to the Scottish elections in May the survey examined support for the parties. It found:
- SNP 53%
- Conservatives 19%
- Labour 18%
- Liberal Democrats 6%
On the list vote the Conservatives lost ground to Labour with:
- SNP 44%
- Labour 18%
- Conservatives 16%
- Scottish Greens on 11%
- Liberal Democrats 8%
This would see:
- The SNP win 71 seats (+8 from 2016)
- Labour 21 seats ( -3)
- Conservatives 17 (-14)
- Scottish Greens 11 seats (+5)
- Liberal Democrats 9 seats (+4)
This means the SNP would have a majority of 13 seats, a carbon copy of the party’s 2011 majority that led to the 2014 independence referendum. The Greens would add another 11 votes in an independence dominated parliament.
Link to the Scotsman article