63% of Scottish voters believe Yes would win a 2021 referendum

63% of Scottish voters believe Scotland would vote Yes to independence if there is an independence referendum next year.

A poll by Panelbase for Business for Scotland (BfS) asked the question: If there was a referendum on Independence in 2021, what side do you think would win?

Excluding the don't knows, 63% thought that Scotland would vote Yes.

The poll identified respondents by how they voted in the 2019 General Election and within this poll 62% of Labour voters also thought that Yes would win. 

Including the don't knows the results were:

•       22% Too close to call

•       29% No would win

•       49% Yes would win

60% believe that the Scottish Parliament has the right to call an independence referendum.

The survey also asked: If the Scottish Parliament contains a majority for independence after the next Scottish elections (May 2021) should the Scottish Parliament be able to call an official independence referendum, with or without Westminster permission?

60% thought that an independence majority of SNP and Greens and not just a single party SNP majority offered a democratic mandate for a new independence referendum. 

Including the don't knows the results were: 

•       52% agree an independence majority constituted a nominate for a new referendum

•       13% were unsure 

•       35% didn’t agree 

Opinion by Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp:

The First Minister has stated that the Scottish Government will introduce legislation to allow for a new referendum. We assume that a Yes majority in the 2021 Scottish elections would therefore lead to an autumn 2021 referendum.  That 63% think that Scotland would vote for independence is significant, given that is 8% more than the 55% who stated they would support independence in the same poll.

What makes this poll so interesting for political analysts is that (including don’t knows) only 29% think the union would prevail in a new independence referendum and only 35% think that an independence majority after Holyrood 2021 did not constitute a democratic mandate to hold such a referendum.

Looking beneath the headline figures, this poll actually suggests that support for the union - and faith that the union will survive such a referendum - has hit rock bottom and is now a minority position.

Notes:

This survey generated 1,011 responses between August 12 and August 18. It polled Scottish based voters over the age of 16. 

Data tables available here.