63% of Scottish voters believe Yes would win a 2021 referendum

63% of Scottish voters believe Scotland would vote Yes to independence if there is an independence referendum next year.

A poll by Panelbase for Business for Scotland (BfS) asked the question: If there was a referendum on Independence in 2021, what side do you think would win?

Excluding the don't knows, 63thought that Scotland would vote Yes.

The poll identified respondents by how they voted in the 2019 General Election and within this poll 62% of Labour voters also thought that Yes would win. 

Including the don't knows the results were:

•       22% Too close to call

•       29% No would win

•       49% Yes would win

60% believe that the Scottish Parliament has the right to call an independence referendum.

The survey also asked: If the Scottish Parliament contains a majority for independence after the next Scottish elections (May 2021) should the Scottish Parliament be able to call an ofcial independence referendum, with or without Westminster permission?

60% thought that an independence majority of SNP and Greens and not just a single party SNP majority offered a democratic mandate for a new independence referendum. 

Including the don't knows the results were: 

•       52% agree an independence majority constituted a nominate for a new referendum

•       13% were unsure 

•       35% didnt agree 

Opinion by Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp:

The First Minister has stated that the Scottish Government will introduce legislation to allow for a new referendum. We assume that a Yes majority in the 2021 Scottish elections would therefore lead to an autumn 2021 referendum.  That 63% think that Scotland would vote for independence is significant, given that is 8% more than the 55% who stated they would support independence in the same poll.

What makes this poll so interesting for political analysts is that (including don’t knows) only 29% think the union would prevail in a new independence referendum and only 35% think that an independence majority after Holyrood 2021 did not constitute a democratic mandate to hold such a referendum.

Looking beneath the headline figures, this poll actually suggests that support for the union - and faith that the union will survive such a referendum - has hit rock bottom and is now a minority position.


This survey generated 1,011 responses between August 12 and August 18. It polled Scottish based voters over the age of 16. 

Data tables available here.