THE nineteenth consecutive opinion poll to show that a majority of Scots back independence has put support at 51%.
The poll was conducted by Survation on behalf of the pro-independence Scot Goes Pop blog. It shows a narrower lead than other recent polls, some of which have put support for independence as high as 58% when don’t knows were excluded.
Survation, as a polling company has repeatedly reported independence support at the lower end of the range and this poll takes the average of the two polls conducted in 2021 to 54% for independence. The blog site also suggested the lower lead than other polls was likely because of methodological factors.
The most recent poll, which suggest 49% would vote against independence, includes some interesting demographic information.
Of the 1,020 Scots questioned, 55% of women would vote for independence compared to 45% of men. These figures are a complete reversal of the gender gap seen in the 2014 independence referendum. The support for independence among women confirms recent trends. A poll by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman put independence support among women as high as 60%.
The Scot Goes Pop poll also shows more than three quarters of those questioned – 78% – aged between 25 and 34 supporting independence.
SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said: “With 19 consecutive polls putting support for independence above 50%, it’s clear that people in Scotland believe they have the right to decide their own future – rather than being subjected to Westminster governments that they don’t vote for, led by the likes of Boris Johnson.
“Majority support for independence is now the established position of the people of Scotland.”
Another caveat for these indy polls, is that, as far as I recall, 16 and 17 year olds are never polled, and we know from previous specific polling from this demographic, that indy support is in the 70% plus region, amongst them.
Regular polling over these last 19 polls, if they included 16/17 year olds, would push indy support even higher. ⁸
It used to be the case that pollsters didn’t include 16 and 17 year olds but they now do as standard. The reason we know that around 70% of that age group supports independence is because they are now included in the polls.