Sources:
- HM Government (2018). EU Exit. Long-term economic analysis. HM Government CM 9742. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760484/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf, p.63.
- Karataş, I. (2016), The EU-Turkey Customs Union: Towards a Revision of the Legal and Institutional Framework?, Ghent University. Available at: https://lib.ugent.be/en/catalog/rug01:002304294; Morris, C. (2017) Brexit: What can UK learn from other external EU borders? BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44054594
- Hantzsche, A., Kara, A., and G. Young. (2018). The Economic Effects of the Government’s Proposed Brexit Deal. National Institute for Economic Research. Available at https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Report%20Brexit%20-%202018-11-26.pdf, p.16.
- The Scottish Government (2018). Scotland’s population needs and migration policy. The Scottish Government. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-needs-migration-policy/, p.14.
- Thom, I., and W. Kenyon (2017). European Union funding in Scotland. SPICe Briefing. Available at: https://sp-bpr-en-prod-cdnep.azureedge.net/published/2018/9/28/European-Union-funding-in-Scotland/SB%2018-61.pdf
- HM Government (2018). EU Exit. Long-term economic analysis. HM Government CM 9742. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760484/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf, p.54.
- As compared to stay. Hantzsche, A., and G. Young (2019). The economic impact of a customs union deal with the European Union, National Institute for Economic Research. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Full%20Report%20-%20The%20economic%20impact%20on%20the%20United%20Kingdom%20of%20a%20customs%20union%20deal%20with%20the%20European%20Union.pdf, p.18.
- As compared to stay. Hantzsche, A., and G. Young (2019). The economic impact of a customs union deal with the European Union, National Institute for Economic Research. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Full%20Report%20-%20The%20economic%20impact%20on%20the%20United%20Kingdom%20of%20a%20customs%20union%20deal%20with%20the%20European%20Union.pdf, p.18.
- (10)We use the GDP figures contained in Hantzsche and Young (2019, p.18) combined with the Scottish Government’s GDP growth time series, and the ONS’ unemployment time series between 1999 and 2018, to run a regression analysis on the relationship between fluctuations in GDP and corresponding changes in the unemployment rate. Using our findings, we then forecast by how much a 3.2% change in change in GDP would increase the unemployment rate in Scotland. Sources for this are: Scottish Government GDP (2017), Available Online: https://www2.gov.scot/SESO/Resources/StatFiles/GENgdp.xls and Scottish Government (2019), ‘GDP Quarterly National Accounts, Scotland 2018 Quarter 4’, Available Online: https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/QNA2018Q4; For unemployment: Office for National Statistics, ‘LFS: ILO Unemployment Rate: Scotland: All: %: SA’, Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/ycnn/lms; For the working age population: National Records of Scotland (2019), ‘Mid-2018 population estimates Scotland’, Available Online: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates/mid-2018.