Brexit could impact around 40k jobs in and around Glasgow that are supported by exports to the European Union.
As a major summit on Brexit is held in Glasgow City Chambers today (Monday), research by a leading think-tank has highlighted not only the importance of exports to the EU for employment in the Glasgow City Region but also the impact of Brexit on companies in and around the city with complicated cross-border supply chains.
The research, by the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute, also flags the potential effect of leaving the bloc on overseas investment into Glasgow and surrounding areas.
The think-tank highlights the impact of Brexit on higher and further education institutions in and around Glasgow with large numbers of EU students and staff, and on public services reliant on workers from elsewhere in the bloc to “help deliver the care and support that we depend upon”.
Summarising its findings, Fraser of Allander says: “Exports to the EU are estimated to support over 130,000 jobs in Scotland through direct demand and wider spillovers into the Scottish economy.
“Based upon an illustrative apportionment of such activity across Scotland’s regions, we estimate that the Glasgow City Region makes up around 40,000 of these jobs – with almost 20,000 jobs in Glasgow City alone.”
Fraser of Allander highlights the fact its estimates “suggest that services exports are particularly important for the Glasgow City Region, accounting for two-thirds of the jobs directly supported by EU demand in the region”.
The research covered the area of the Glasgow City Deal, taking in East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, and West Dunbartonshire council areas.
Glasgow City Council commissioned the research from Fraser of Allander ahead of today’s key summit; speakers include University of Glasgow Principal Sir Anton Muscatelli, author of the Article 50 EU exit clause Lord John Kerr, and Fraser of Allander Institute director Professor Graeme Roy.
Prof Roy said Fraser of Allander’s estimates highlighted the magnitude and relative importance of EU demand to the economy in and around Glasgow.
He said: “What we are saying is this is the amount of demand you can track back to the EU in Scotland and this is Glasgow’s share of it.”
Mr Roy added: “What we are not saying is these jobs are going to go under Brexit. We are not saying overnight 40,000 jobs are going to be lost in Glasgow because of Brexit – it is just simply the demand it [the rest of the EU] is supporting.”